The United States extended its ceasefire with Iran indefinitely on April 21. Within hours, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard fired on three container ships in the Strait of Hormuz and seized two of them. That sequence — a diplomatic olive branch followed immediately by a military escalation — is the single most important data point for every investor holding energy-dependent stocks on the Dhaka Stock Exchange right now.
WTI crude closed at $89.33 per barrel on April 22, down 0.38% from the previous session. Brent briefly climbed above $100 after the Hormuz attacks before retreating to $95.75. Goldman Sachs’s Q2 forecast of $87 WTI and $90 Brent, issued April 9, suddenly looks achievable rather than optimistic — but only if you ignore what is still happening in the water between Iran and Oman.
For a country that imports 95% of its energy needs, the difference between $89 oil with a functioning strait and $89 oil with a blockade is the difference between relief and illusion.
The Stabilization Case
Start with what the numbers actually show. WTI at $89.33 is up just 1.36% over the past month. One month ago, the market was pricing in escalation. Today it is pricing in something closer to containment. That shift, however tentative, matters for Bangladesh’s import bill.
The ceasefire extension itself is unprecedented in the 54-day conflict. Previous pauses lasted hours or days. An indefinite extension — announced at Pakistan’s request — signals that at least one side sees diplomatic value in keeping the guns quiet. If the ceasefire holds and peace talks resume, Goldman’s $87 Q2 target becomes a floor rather than a ceiling.
For DSE investors, that scenario translates directly into sector math. Bangladesh raised fuel prices 10-15% on April 19 — diesel to Tk 115 per litre, petrol to Tk 135, octane to Tk 140. Those increases were a response to crude above $90. If crude stabilizes in the high $80s, a second round of hikes becomes unlikely. The textile, ceramics, cement, and steel sectors that absorbed those cost increases can begin to plan around a known input price rather than a moving target.
Bargain hunters appeared to agree. Turnover surged 13% on April 21 as buyers returned to a bourse that had been bleeding under the weight of the fuel price hike. The question is whether they were buying a bottom or catching a falling knife.
The Conditional in Conditional Relief
That question depends entirely on the Strait of Hormuz, and the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed.
Tanker traffic through the strait is running 90% below pre-war levels. Before the conflict, over 100 vessels crossed daily. Now, ships are actively avoiding the passage. Iran’s April 22 attacks — conducted hours after the ceasefire extension — demonstrate that Tehran draws a clear distinction between stopping airstrikes and reopening shipping lanes.
This distinction matters enormously for Bangladesh. The country has 11 LNG cargoes planned for May to meet peak summer electricity demand. Spot LNG is already trading at 2.5 times pre-crisis prices. Qatar — one of Bangladesh’s four long-term LNG suppliers — has warned of supply reductions. Outstanding power sector bills stand at Tk 52,300 crore.
So while WTI crude may have stabilized near $89, Bangladesh’s actual energy costs have not. The import bill reflects spot LNG premiums, shipping route disruptions, and supply chain fragility that a ceasefire between Washington and Tehran does not resolve. The fuel queues, purchase caps, and rationing measures across the country are driven by supply disruption, not just price — and the supply disruption continues regardless of what the US president announces.
Goldman Sachs put the risk plainly: Brent could hit $115 if the ceasefire fails. At that price, Bangladesh would face a third fuel price hike in months, and the DSE sectors already under margin pressure from $89 oil would face existential cost structures.
What This Means for DSE Positioning
The DSEX has been trading in a 5,200-5,300 range with no conviction in either direction. The ceasefire extension gives bulls a narrative. The Hormuz attacks give bears a data point. Both are correct.
Banking stocks — which led turnover on April 21 with City Bank at the top — stand to benefit most from improved sentiment. Sentiment is the one input that changes immediately when a ceasefire headline crosses the wire. Fundamentals take longer. Higher fuel costs are already flowing through to NPL risk as transport and manufacturing borrowers face margin compression.
Energy-dependent sectors need the strait reopened, not just the ceasefire extended. Until LNG cargoes can transit at pre-war insurance rates, the cost relief is theoretical. The IMF’s downgrade of Bangladesh’s growth forecast to 4.3% already accounts for elevated energy costs — but not for a scenario where those costs persist through Q3.
The ceasefire is real. The stabilization is conditional. And for a market that imports 95% of its energy through supply chains that remain disrupted, the condition has not been met. The next signal is not another diplomatic announcement. It is a tanker crossing the Strait of Hormuz without being fired upon.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors should conduct their own due diligence before making any investment decisions.