On March 9, the DSEX lost 232 points — a 4.42% single-session collapse to 5,009, the steepest daily fall in six years. Out of 397 traded issues, 364 declined. Ten advanced. The advance-to-decline ratio hit 1:36. Every sector closed in the red.
But this was not a uniform selloff. The energy and fuel sector was among the hardest hit, and the reasons go far beyond one day’s panic. For investors holding energy stocks on the DSE, March 9 did not create a new problem. It exposed one that has been compounding for a decade.
The question is whether the market has finished repricing that risk — or just started.
The Trigger: Strait of Hormuz Goes From Highway to Chokepoint
The immediate catalyst was the Iran-Israel military escalation that intensified in late February 2026. The conflict moved from proxy exchanges to direct confrontation, and its economic impact centred on the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow passage through which roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil and natural gas transits daily.
On a normal day, 24 tankers pass through the strait. By March 1, that number had dropped to four. Iranian targeting of ships and energy infrastructure effectively suspended a fifth of global hydrocarbon supply.
Oil responded predictably. WTI crude surged past $110 per barrel, with Brent up 36% year-to-date. But for Bangladesh, the oil price is only half the story. The other half — the more dangerous half — is LNG.
All three of Bangladesh’s major LNG suppliers invoked force majeure. When QatarEnergy — which controls approximately 20% of the world’s seaborne LNG and was scheduled to deliver around 40 cargoes to Bangladesh in 2026 — declared force majeure, the others followed. The contractual supply pipeline shut down.
Bangladesh was pushed onto the spot market. A single LNG cargo that normally costs around Tk 500 crore now costs Tk 1,300 crore — a 160% premium. The government responded with emergency measures: universities closed early, holidays advanced, mandatory fuel conservation orders issued. These are not the actions of a country managing a temporary disruption. These are the actions of a country facing a structural energy crisis.
Why the Energy Sector Took the Hardest Hit
The broader market crash on March 9 punished every sector. Jute fell 6.2%. Banking — the largest sector by turnover at 23.1% of the day’s volume — also dropped 6.2%. Travel and leisure lost 5.5%.
But the energy and fuel sector’s decline carried a different signal. Banking stocks fell on general risk aversion. Energy stocks fell because the market was repricing a specific, quantifiable vulnerability: Bangladesh’s power generation now depends on imported fuel for approximately 65% of its supply, up from just 5% in FY2009-10. Power generation costs have multiplied 4x in fifteen years as a direct consequence.
Domestic gas production has been declining at 4.64% per annum since FY2018-19. New capacity additions of 143 MMcfd in 2026 are insufficient to close the supply gap. The country imported 7.28 million tonnes of LNG in 2025 across 109 cargoes — up 19% from the previous year’s 86. The LNG import bill reached $3.88 billion in 2025, an $855 million increase over 2024’s $3.02 billion.
This is not a cyclical cost pressure. It is a structural dependency that deepens every year. And the market on March 9 began pricing that reality into energy stock valuations.
The Fiscal Trajectory Investors Cannot Ignore
The FY2025-26 budget allocated Tk 90 billion for LNG imports. At current spot prices, that allocation is already inadequate.
Projections place Bangladesh’s LNG import bill at $8.5 billion by FY2029-30 — more than double the current level. Every dollar of that increase flows directly into the cost base of power generators, industrial consumers, and the fertiliser sector. For listed energy companies, this translates to margin compression that no efficiency programme can offset when input costs are rising at triple-digit percentages.
The P/E ratios that investors use to value energy stocks assume some baseline cost stability. When your primary input — imported LNG — can swing 160% in a week because of a conflict 4,000 kilometres away, those valuation models need recalibrating.
Turnover on March 9 actually fell 34% to Tk 416 crore, suggesting institutional investors pulled back rather than panic-sold. That restraint may not hold if the Strait of Hormuz disruption extends beyond weeks into months.
What This Means Going Forward
The DSEX at 5,009 has now declined more than 10% month-to-date. Energy stocks are at the centre of that decline, and the underlying driver — Bangladesh’s escalating LNG import dependency — does not resolve when the geopolitical crisis passes. It merely stops accelerating.
Bangladesh’s energy infrastructure was built on the assumption of abundant domestic gas. That assumption expired years ago. What March 9 revealed is that the stock market is finally catching up to a reality the import data has been signalling since at least 2024: LNG is no longer a stopgap measure for Bangladesh. It is structural. And structural dependencies get repriced — sometimes all at once.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Consult a BSEC-licensed advisor before making investment decisions.